Answer:
a. 1-step transition matrix is be expressed as:
[tex]P= \left[\begin{array}{cc}0.75&0.25\\0.45&0.55\\\end{array}\right][/tex]
b. The probability that he will be in City A after two trips given that he is in City B = 0.585
c. After many trips, the probability that he will be in city B = 0.3571
Step-by-step explanation:
Given that:
For each trip, if the driver is in city A, the probability that he has to drive passengers to city B is 0.25
If he is in city B, the probability that he has to drive passengers to city A is 0.45.
The objectives are to calculate the following :
a. What is the 1-step transition matrix?
To determine the 1 -step transition matrix
Let the State ∝ and State β denotes the Uber Driver providing service in City A and City B respectively.
∴ The transition probability from state ∝ to state β is 0.25.
The transition probability from state ∝ to state ∝ is 1- 0.25 = 0.75
The transition probability from state β to state ∝ is 0.45. The transition probability from state β to state β is 1 - 0.45 = 0.55
Hence; 1-step transition matrix is be expressed as:
[tex]P= \left[\begin{array}{cc}0.75&0.25\\0.45&0.55\\\end{array}\right][/tex]
b. Suppose he is in city B, what is the probability he will be in city A after two trips?
Consider [tex]Y_n[/tex] = ∝ or β to represent the Uber driver is in City A or City B respectively.
∴ The probability that he will be in City A after two trips given that he is in City B
=[tex]P(Y_0 = 2, Y_2 = 1 , Y_3 = 1) + P(Y_0 = 2, Y_2 = 2 , Y_3 = 1)[/tex]
= 0.45 × 0.75 + 0.55 × 0.45
= 0.3375 + 0.2475
= 0.585
c. After many trips between the two cities, what is the probability he will be in city B?
Assuming that Ф = [ p q ] to represent the long run proportion of time that Uber driver is in City A or City B respectively.
Then, ФP = Ф , also p+q = 1 , q = 1 - p and p = 1 - q
∴
[tex][ p\ \ \ q ] = \left[\begin{array}{cc}0.75&0.25\\0.45&0.55\\\end{array}\right] [ p\ \ \ q ][/tex]
0.75p + 0.45q = q
-0.25p + 0.45q = 0
since p = 1- q
-0.25(1 - q) + 0.45q = 0
-0.25 + 0.25 q + 0.45q = 0
0.7q = 0.25
q = [tex]\dfrac{0.25} {0.7 }[/tex]
q = 0.3571
After many trips, the probability that he will be in city B = 0.3571
