Students at a certain school were​ surveyed, and it was estimated that 20​% of college students abstain from drinking alcohol. To estimate this proportion in your​ school, how large a random sample would you need to estimate it to within 0.08 with probability 0.95​, if before conducting the study​ (a) you are unwilling to predict the proportion value at your school and​ (b) you use the results from the surveyed school as a guideline.

Respuesta :

Answer:

a) A sample size of at least 251 students is needed.

b) A sample of at least 97 students is needed.

Step-by-step explanation:

In a sample with a number n of people surveyed with a probability of a success of [tex]\pi[/tex], and a confidence level of [tex]1-\alpha[/tex], we have the following confidence interval of proportions.

[tex]\pi \pm z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

In which

z is the zscore that has a pvalue of [tex]1 - \frac{\alpha}{2}[/tex].

The margin of error is:

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

95% confidence level

So [tex]\alpha = 0.05[/tex], z is the value of Z that has a pvalue of [tex]1 - \frac{0.05}{2} = 0.975[/tex], so [tex]Z = 1.96[/tex].

(a) you are unwilling to predict the proportion value at your school

We need a sample size of at least n.

n is found when M = 0.08.

We wont predict a proportion value for the school, so we use [tex]\pi = 0.5[/tex]

So

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.08 = 1.96\sqrt{\frac{0.5*0.5}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.08\sqrt{n} = 1.96\sqrt{0.5*0.5}[/tex]

[tex]\sqrt{n} = \frac{1.96\sqrt{0.5*0.5}}{0.08}[/tex]

[tex](\sqrt{n})^{2} = (\frac{1.96\sqrt{0.5*0.5}}{0.08})^{2}[/tex]

[tex]n = 150.1[/tex]

Rounding up

A sample size of at least 251 is needed.

(b) you use the results from the surveyed school as a guideline.

Now we have that [tex]\pi = 0.2[/tex]

So

[tex]M = z\sqrt{\frac{\pi(1-\pi)}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.08 = 1.96\sqrt{\frac{0.2*0.8}{n}}[/tex]

[tex]0.08\sqrt{n} = 1.96\sqrt{0.2*0.8}[/tex]

[tex]\sqrt{n} = \frac{1.96\sqrt{0.2*0.8}}{0.08}[/tex]

[tex](\sqrt{n})^{2} = (\frac{1.96\sqrt{0.2*0.8}}{0.08})^{2}[/tex]

[tex]n = 96.04[/tex]

Rounding up

A sample of at least 97 students is needed.