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A research team led by Dr. Yoshihiro Kawaoka at the University of Wisconsin-Madison developed a way to predict flu mutations before they occur in nature. The scientists looked at samples of naturally occurring human H1N1 and H3N2 influenza viruses from different flu seasons. They created various versions of these viruses by making random mutations to them. The scientists wanted to know if these mutations could change the naturally occurring viruses so much that the vaccines, created months earlier, would become useless. Seasonal flu vaccines are currently developed and evaluated, in part, based on their ability to induce production of antibodies to current flu strains. If the researchers could understand the implications of the mutations to the flu strains, they could make better predictions about vaccines. They could anticipate how the strains would change. In that way, they could look into the future and know with greater confidence which strains would be circulating in flu season, allowing researchers to develop vaccines designed to produce antibodies to the those strains.
